Sweco AB (publ)

STO:SWEC B

Earnings Call Transcript 2018-Q3

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

Good morning, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on this presentation of the Sweco Q3 Interim Report 2018. And I would also like to welcome those of you who have joined us in the conference call. My name is Åsa Bergman, I am the CEO and President of Sweco. And with me today, as always, by my side is my CFO, Jonas Dahlberg. Let me start by saying that Sweco is overall performing well. Most of our business areas is performing according to plan or above the plan, it goes for the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Central Europe. The growth was 7% adjusted for currency and the organic growth was 4%, and the EBITA increased SEK 27 million compared with last year. And also, let me remind you that there were no calendar effect in this quarter compared with last year. When breaking down the group revenue growth, organic growth was solid in Western Europe, in the Netherlands and Norway. And for EBITA, the positive development in Netherlands, Denmark continued, which is very nice to see, it connected to the turnover that we've done in those countries. They are performing well. And that, together with a strong development in Norway, there were -- and those countries where the main contributed -- contributors to the solid operational performance that we had. The underlying level -- levers driving the growth was that we have new colleagues joining us, and also, that we have positive development of our prices. This is 2 areas that we have been focusing on, and we see positive development there. Even though majority of our market is performing well, we experienced some headwind in Sweden and U.K., and that is due to some headwind in subsegments. Overall, the market for Sweco services is good with some variations in countries and in some segments, and I will, during this presentation, come back and elaborate a bit more connected to that. Let's look at some of the projects that we have won during the Q3. At Sweco, all projects counts, large and small. And this is how we ensure that we always deliver and support the customer we have in all our markets, independent of project size. For us, this is how we ensure that we can keep high billing ratio in all our units and divisions and this also makes us less vulnerable for the market fluctuations. And that here I have some highlights from the Q3. We have been chosen for a project in Poland, where we should work with the tunnel that will connect 2 islands, to ensure growth in this region. It's a tunnel that is approximately 3.2 kilometers long and will ensure that the travel time is reduced and really makes this region more livable. The order value is around and will exceed EUR 4 million, and it is a project that will go on until 2022. In Finland, Terrafame will invest in developing a technology to produce high-quality battery chemicals with low carbon footprints. And this plant will produce high -- this plant will produce these chemicals, at least for electrical vehicles, and ultimately, this actually provides solutions for the more sustainable transportation going forward. And we will -- we're involved in this project for several years, 100 persons will work in this project over the project time. In the Netherlands, Sweco and 2 other partners has been chosen by the Dutch Energy system operator, TenneT to expand and replace the higher voltage grid to several locations in the Netherlands, and this is to ensure reliable and secure electricity supply in the country. And this project is a 3-year framework for us. In Sri Lanka, project export for us, we will work with wastewater solutions. There is a lack of selective wastewater solutions in Sri Lanka, and the effect of that is that there is heavy pollution issues around the coastline and in the lagoons, and we will work with a solution for that in the country.And with that, over to Jonas and go through the financials. Jonas?

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you. So let me start with the top line, as we usually do. Strong growth in the quarter, we grew 12% compared to same period last year. Yes, there is a currency effect of 5% in that, but even if you discount the currency effect, solid organic growth of 4% and 3% acquired growth. And I'd like to go a little bit deeper into the development of the organic growth and remind you about what we said last quarter. Sweco's historical organic growth is around 5%, and I think that's what you should consider. And we had a period last year, which was sort of related to the [ company ] integration, where we had lower organic growth. But since the beginning of the year, we've picked up again on organic growth, and we think it's a solid organic growth and as we said then sustainable. And we had 7% in second quarter, and what we said there is we think you should look at more the long-term historical average, and that's where we are basically. Now where is this coming from? And who is contributing? What's really encouraging here is that 5 out of 7 business areas contribute to the organic growth. And in fact, we have 2 business areas who contribute with a double-digit organic growth and that's Norway and Central Europe. But also, we have solid growth in Denmark, Netherlands and Western Europe during the quarter. Also, if we look at organic growth, this is very much supported by a solid order backlog. In fact, it's a growing order backlog and it's also supported by the increase of capacity in terms of more consultants joining Sweco. And so we have 400 more FTEs in this third quarter compared to the same period last year. And this capacity increase comes mainly from Central Europe, Sweden and Norway, and all of those 3 business areas are adding between 100 and 200 FTEs, and we're very happy with those consultants joining Sweco. Now moving over to the profit development. Also, EBITA increased in the quarter with SEK 27 million. And this essentially means that we maintained a stable EBITA margin during the quarter compared to the same period last year. The absolute increase of SEK 27 million is mainly driven by a positive fill to seller ratio, so a gross margin expansion, if you will. It also contributes -- contributions from organic growth and M&A. But there are also couple of other drivers like less absence, positive effects affect, but also those are not the most important contributors. Please note that there is no calendar effect in the quarter. So both on top line and on EBITA, it's very much a clean comparison to same quarter during the previous year. Now let's look at a bit more details of EBITA. And there was a negative, and let me address that head-on, and that is the development of the billing ratio. We had a drop of billing ratio of 1.4%, and there may be some questions around this, give the public sentiment about the market development and the business cycle, in general. And yes, we had a slower start off to the summer, but we want to emphasize that we still have a good market in most segments, and we're growing the order backlog and we're growing capacity. There are pockets out there in some segments which shows weakness, but in general, it is good market. And it's really in our hands. The market opportunity is in our hands. So we believe that working harder is the solution here. Zooming in on EBITA development. As also said, we're very happy with the continued positive development in down market in the Netherlands. It's back to the Grontmij acquisition and the turnaround of those units, a strong trajectory. Also, Norway had a -- swung back during the quarter in a very positive way. But also Finland and Central Europe improved, although a little bit less. So on the negative side, it is mainly Sweden we're talking about, and it is related to a drop in billing ratio, slightly higher project adjustments as well. And it's true that we see a headwind in the residential segment, but you need to understand that this is a relatively minor part of Sweco. And also, the market for architects and engineering consultants, in general. So also in Sweden, we see a positive development of order backlog, and we see also more people joining us, where we lead them. We're more selective in recruiting, but we're at a capacity where we lead. When it comes to the U.K., the decline is also related to -- and this is part of Western Europe, the decline here is partly market-related, but there is also a large -- a number of large projects where we have intermissions in the projects for, in the water sector, it's planned; in the transportation, it's a little bit unexpected. It's, you can say that in its own way, it's related to the market. But it's not a systematic effect, it's more individual event-driven effects in these projects. So moving on to cash flow. The cash flow in Q3, very much in line with normal seasonal pattern, which is meaning we're building working capital and that's -- on the operating cash flow, it's quite weak, but that's the normal seasonal development. As you can see, it's actually better than the last year same period. And year-to-date, operating cash flow is better than last year, and we have lesser buildup of working capital. Now for Q4, as always, we will expect a significant cash release and this is the normal seasonal pattern. But in overall operating cash flow, as expected and stable. When it comes to working capital, it is still on a slightly higher level than normal but it's definitely within normal variations. Moving over to the financial position. We're increasing net debt, and the increase is mainly driven by acquisitions we've done. There is some currency translation effects also on euro-denominated debt, and it's an increase of dividends. All in all, still very solid financial position, leverage ratio of 1.5x. And with that, Åsa, markets?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

Some comments on the market. It is clear that Sweco today is more diverse company with operations in many countries in the Northern Europe. On average, there is good demand for our services across our footprint, as I said, with some variation between countries and segments. Essentially all 8 core countries and the -- experience good demands for our services, especially in infrastructure, in industry and in water and environment. And also, demand in the real estate is overall on a good level, but -- and then, as Jonas said, zooming into residential area in Sweden, still slowing down. And focusing on Norway and the capital area, especially, and the residential is slowing down and some early signs in Denmark connected to the residential area. So starting with Germany and Netherlands and Belgium. Overall, good and developing positively. Denmark, good, but early signs of residential weakness. Finland, stable development. And Sweden, overall good, but residential market still on the low levels. Norway, overall good, strong in infrastructure and power transmission, but also their residential market is slowing down. And Jonas said, overall in U.K., it's okay but still there is still an uncertainty when it comes to Brexit and some weakness in the real estate market. So once again, overall good demand for our services and with some variations between countries and segments. This brings me to our strategy and our priorities going forward. Sweco has a successful strategy, and we will continue to execute on it. To capture the potential of the way we know, is our way of working, that we call the Sweco model, to really execute on that and is what is on the agenda. And to really capture the potential, we need to consistently ensure that we implement and execute on that way of working. And it means that we need to strengthen the customer relationships in all our countries, ensure that we can deliver the right services on all our markets. But also who ensure that we are the most attractive company for both customer and employees in all our countries. It means also that we need to continue to implement the decentralized responsibility in our operating -- operation -- organizational model in all countries, the strong corporate culture we have and the clear leadership that supports the way we want to work. And now we need to filter this through, the whole of our organization. And then connected to the Q3 result, the Q3 result shows that we need to continue to execute on the strategy and to achieve the goal and the long-term financial goal and continue our growth, we need to be really clear on the strategy. We also need to ensure that we work close to market with the customer relationships focusing on sales and project execution, meaning that we also need to tighten up our operational management, means billing ratio. And as I said, continue to implement our customer promise in all our countries to ensure that we are the best choice for the customer on all markets that we're working on. And the last part, again is, connected to that we're now more intense focused on implementing the Sweco operating model in all our countries. And this is according to plan, the next step, for the countries that we acquired when we acquired Grontmij. So to summarize, overall, a good performance during the quarter, especially Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Central Europe are improving and are performing according or above our plan.Growth 7%, currency adjusted, amounted organic growth 4% and acquired 3%. And the EBITA increased SEK 27 million. And as we said, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Central Europe were the main contributors. And overall, the market for our services remains good with some variations between the countries and between our segments. And now, we're looking forward to some questions.

[Ola Soedermark, Equity Research Analyst]

Ola Soedermark, Kepler Cheuvreux. If I could talk a little bit more about Sweden, because I think that's what sounds in your report, your highlights that the start after the summer has been a little bit slower than normal. If you can talk a little bit about the current situation? And then also, if it's possible to quantify the project that Jonas, that you mentioned?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

To -- so what we experienced is that we had a more slow start after the summer than we normally had in Sweden. And we can also see in the quarter that we have some effects connected to the real estate area. And again, it's important to understand that this -- it's a slow part of our business in Sweden. And the focus in Sweden now is to ensure that we work really close with the customers and really focus to execute on the project. That is the situation when it comes to. And again, the order backlog grows and the demands for the services is good, except from the area of residential.

[Ola Soedermark, Equity Research Analyst]

And is it possible to quantify the project that Jonas, that you mentioned? Is it write-downs? Or is it just gap between different projects? Or...

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

The project adjustments we're talking about, that's adjustments or work in progress, so it hits the revenue line. And the -- this is a part of the business, it goes a little bit up and down by quarter. There is nothing exceptional here, it's predominantly a billing ratio effect, but there's also contribution from more project adjustments. And on the billing ratio, it affects us also as it's good market still, it's in our hands to execute mainly. Then there are pockets like residential development, which obviously is weak. But in general, real estate is good and in particular in public buildings hospitals, schools. That is still grows strongly as well as infrastructure grows strongly, power transmission, the water market, et cetera.

[Ola Soedermark, Equity Research Analyst]

And the current situation, is it back to normal now, or right now?

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

I mean right now, it's a bit of a catch-up game when it comes to billing ratio. Typically, over after vacation, you see a gradual increase of billing ratio, we see that also. But it is a catch up game. And experience tells if you sort of, when you come out of the corner, if you lose too much velocity in the corner, even if you put front and full, it's difficult to catch up fully, but we are catching up. But whether we'll catch up to normal levels where we should be fully, that remains to be seen.

[Ola Soedermark, Equity Research Analyst]

I'd also like to highlight the order backlog is increasing, even in Sweden?

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, the order backlog is increasing in Sweden. So this is more an operational issue. And partly, it's -- the markets, when it becomes a little bit more, I should say, uneven -- unevenly distributed in terms of demand, it becomes a little bit more challenging or more challenging to plan and staff projects. But it's possible.

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

And again, back to our decentralized model to work on and operate really local and project portfolio in Sweden is small and midsized projects, that actually helps us to really focus on execution in projects.

[Viktor Lindeberg, Financial Analyst]

Viktor Lindeberg with Carnegie. A couple questions on Sweden, as well, from my side. And firstly, thinking about the margin of just below 6% now in Sweden in Q3. You were down more than, I think it's from 8.8% in a 2-year perspective, so quite a big contraction. And just to understand how much of this could be a billing ratio? Is there still other operational challenges or structural challenges, like increases of indirect costs or anything that is leading to this 2-year margin contraction? That was my first question.

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

There is nothing in the cost base. There's a bit of calendar effect, if you go 2 years back. There is no calendar effect into last year, and it is mainly about billing ratio in the quarter. And -- well, as we said, there is a bit of market effect there, but it's in our hands, so it is many about operations.

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

And it's connected to our how focused we are on the market and how focused we are on the customers, and how efficient we are when we're working.

[Viktor Lindeberg, Financial Analyst]

That was going to be my follow-up. And thinking about U.S., you were heading up the Swedish division until recently. Is there a succession reason behind this lost momentum in particularly Sweden, in that you were running it very tightly, evidently and now you have a bit of a slack leaving over to other leaders in the organization? Is that a potential angle?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

No, I would not argue that it's connected to that. No.

[Viktor Lindeberg, Financial Analyst]

Okay. Thinking about U.K. then, final from my side for now. Is this longer-term core market for you, given the uncertainty we have, not the least with Brexit and it being a very minor portion of your business and your market position in the U.K., also not being a top player? It would be interesting to hear your thoughts about that.

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

Yes, we have decided to be in the U.K., and it's one of our core markets, and we have the same strategy in U.K. as in the rest of the countries. Of course, what you were saying about the Brexit, it's connected to uncertainty, but we are executing on it, which means that we focus on organic growth and to find companies in U.K. So yes, we are there.

[Viktor Lindeberg, Financial Analyst]

And what is your idea of the future in a 2 or 3-year perspective? Are you budgeting for continued growth are you have back-up plans, given the deteriorating environment? So you're budgeting for growth and that not materializing, it might need to some margin contraction. That's my question. What do you see in your...

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

I think, I mean Brexit is highly uncertain. What that will mean, so we need to plan for both, and we are planning both for negative scenario as well as a less negative scenario, I would say. But Brexit has an impact us, I think it's undeniable. But the question is, to what degree? So we're planning scenarios. But longer-term we think, the Brexit effect is moderate. We think it's a good market opportunity. It definitely fits our geographical footprint. It's a fragmented market but it's also a market with a lot of M&A opportunities, so it fits very well into our strategy. And it would be sort of the -- we have Germany as a large country in the portfolio and U.K. would be the second large country in the portfolio for the long run.

[Erik Elander, Research Analyst]

Erik Elander from Handelsbanken. So I also have some questions regarding the billing ratio. So first of all, the billing ratio you say that it's in your hands to improve it going forward here. So I was also wondering is it related to the higher personnel turnover? Because it is quite difficult to recruit as I understand. Or is it related to more project delays or mix or both? Or have do you just become complacent regarding the billing ratio in Sweden?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

It's actually as we said, it's connected to a slower start. And the personal turnover has been on those levels that they are in Sweden for quite a long time now. It's more that the personnel turnover in Sweden is on stable levels, so our way of working connected to the personal turnover is better today than it was like some years ago. We are attractive and we are recruiting, so we're actually growing the numbers, FTEs. So I would argue it's not connected to that, because that is the situation that we have had in Sweden for a very long time. So it's mainly due to a slow start and that we are not focusing and working efficient enough in the Swedish organization. That's why I'd argue that is connected to that the focus we need to have now is that we really tighten up our operational management and ensure that we work hard with the local -- our local customers, or harder with the local customers.

[Erik Elander, Research Analyst]

Okay, so why -- how come you have been not working that hard as you have been previously? Is it because Sweden has been performing so well for a long time?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

Yes, of course, you can argue that when you are in a very strong market, it's really easy that you, of course, your portfolio, your order backlog is full, and then you need to focus on the projects and you need to focus on executing on the projects. And you take some things maybe for granted. So we need to have all the time full focus on the market and full focus on operational management. And so it's -- but as we said, it's also some kind of relationship to the market but that is in the residential area where we see the effects.

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

I can assure you that we are not complacent about this. We need to remember that Sweco Sweden, by all standards is extremely high performing, more generally in the group, more generally they're hitting the international benchmark. We have a growing order backlog, working well on the markets. We have a positive development when it comes to filling levels. So a lot of KPIs goes in the right direction. Of course, to really perform and maintain the performance, all stars need to be aligned. And in this quarter, we didn't succeed with billing ratio, and we are definitely not complacent about it.

[Erik Elander, Research Analyst]

Excellent. So just a final question for me. You decreased number of employees quarter-over-quarter from Q2 to Q3. Is this just a seasonal pattern? Or what is it?

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, it's just a seasonal pattern. And it's -- in FTEs, you also have overtime included. So that's partly a driver and it is also we try to make sure that people are joining in the right season so you don't want to recruit and bring people on board in July and August. And therefore, the FTEs are lower during Q3.

[Unknown Analyst]

[ Tobias Aurelius with Fontaine. ] Could you quantify something about initiative in Sri Lanka? Did you say anything, how many people you have working with that project, or order value or something?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

No, I don't have that information.

[Unknown Analyst]

[ Fred Nylart ] with [ AFA. ] Could you describe the competitive situation? Is a strong as it was before? Is it increasing, decreasing? Any pressures that you feel are coming upon you?

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

It's the same situation as it has been for several years. So it's no change.Okay. So with that, we say thank you for joining. And yes, thank you, Jonas.

[Jonas Dahlberg, Chief Financial Officer]

Looking forward to seeing you next quarter, and of course, in between. Thank you.

[Åsa Bergman, President & CEO]

Thank you.